We provide clients with multi-month sentiment forecasts and strategy sessions followed by periodic status reports.  Contact us for product information.  

Our forecasts indicate upcoming naturally occurring shifts in sentiment that create tailwinds and headwinds for the stock market. Shifts occur periodically and are described as changes between:

• Optimism and pessimism
• Risk-on and risk-off
• Euphoria and panic
• Market resilience and vulnerability

A shift between naturally occurring optimism and pessimism acts as a catalyst for a dramatic price change when there is an economic need for a price change. 

We exploit variables related to those described in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's 2003 working paper "Playing the Field" to create our forecasts. This paper and our independent research indicate that solar energy variation affects human mood. Our physics-based sentiment drivers are objective measures that reflect the forces that cause solar energy variation. 

Our research indicates that the impact of the physics-based drivers on the emotions of investors has been stable over many decades. Our forecasts do not predict news and events. Instead, they forecast likely human reaction to news and events.  

Physics-based sentiment forecasts:

• Are objective and rules-based
• Are independent of and external to the markets, making them complementary to most investment strategies. 

In an ideal world, the movement of the markets would be determined by economic and fundamental factors alone – solar energy variation would have no impact. Yet, the  historical record indicates that this is not the case. We have found that natural shifts in investor optimism have a greater impact than is commonly recognized (example). 

Investment professionals will make more effective decisions about future market conditions if they recognize and adjust for the naturally occurring shifts in sentiment. 

Our research is described in the following: 

• March 2023 LinkedIn article: Forecasting Investor Risk Aversion Using Physics-Based Variables
• May 2023 Institutional Investor article: You’ve Heard About Behavioral Finance. But What About Physical Finance?
• September 2025 LinkedIn article: Physics May Be Driving High Stock Valuations
• October 2025 CPM white paper on Anxiety-Free Periods since the 1930s and the 2026 Anxiety-Free Period: Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment: Evidence from Past Boom-and-Bust Periods and the Anticipated Dynamics of 2026